Climate Change in Northeast India with special reference to Arunachal Pradesh

Mukhim, Patricia (2009) “Climate Change and N-E”, The Arunachal Times, 3 May 2009.

Scientists predict that by the end of this century most of Bangladesh will be under water. The country’s 130 million people who have learnt to survive in a country that has more water than land will spill over into the Northeast with a vengeance. This would make the present migration pattern look quite insignificant in terms of what that major exodus would do to the demographic profile of the region.

Talking about this at a recent conference of women from SAARC countries in New Delhi, Mohammad Yunus said in the inaugural speech, “We know this is happening but we have not worked out any solution to the man-climate confrontation.”

Climate change is an issue that threatens people the world over, but more so the indigenous inhabitants of the polar regions, the tropical rainforests and people living in the mountain areas. Debates on the issue of climate change have gained ground in the last 10 years particularly after Al Gore brought out his book, Earth in the Balance. So serious has the issue become that an indigenous peoples’ global summit on climate change was called in Alaska, USA, from April 20-25, where at least four participants from the Northeast attended, including Meghalaya’s youngest MP Agatha Sangma.

This summit is a preparation for the major climate change conference at Copenhagen scheduled for December this year. The UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Peoples, headed by Victoria Taoli Corpuz, has held different regional consultations, to ensure that indigenous people/tribals have a voice to decide how the ill effects of climate change must be reversed or mitigated by some definite action plans which would involve powerful countries taking responsibility for the hundreds of years of irresponsible mining and industrial activities such as power generation and exploitation of resources which have all been commodified and given a value to.

The mechanisms

Developed nations have come up with different mechanisms to offset climate change. One of them is carbon credit rating or carbon sequestration whereby countries which conserve forests would be monetarily compensated for allowing those forests to become the carbon sinks of the developed world.

While such proposals seem attractive at the outset and states like Arunachal Pradesh, which claim to have 81 per cent of their land under forests, have already made plans for claiming green bonuses, the consequences of such mitigating factors are yet not fully known or understood. First of all, the question is who will measure the quantum of carbon that can be dumped. Secondly and most important, who gets the money and how will it be used to create/regenerate deforested areas?

Arunachal claim

Arunachal Pradesh’s claims seem a little out of sync with the realities in that state. This last frontier is one that India looks at as its reservoir for hydel power. Arunachal Pradesh has the capacity to generate 50,000MW of hydro-electricity which would, of course, be pumped into the national grid for use by the country and even for evacuation to neighbouring countries like Bangladesh which are power starved. Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Dorjee Khandu has already signed several power project agreements with the private and public sector.

While public sector units (PSUs) like NEEPCO are being put through very stringent environmental impact assessment (EIA) benchmarks, one is not so sure if similar stringency is adopted for the private sector, which is willing to pay money upfront for quick clearance of the projects. We know how every arm of the government can be made to hasten the process of decision-making when palms are greased. So while the PSUs will have to abide by and adhere to strict environmental guidelines during project implementation, the private sector may not be so circumspect. Ironically, the former can be held accountable for any adverse outcome but the latter may not be around to take responsibility. Moreover, the memoranda of agreement between private parties and the Arunachal Pradesh government are shrouded in secrecy.

While there are demands from various NGOs and anti-dam activists that such MOAs be put in the public domain, those demands very often fizzle out in the absence of a strong network of environmental activists within the region. Very often, NGOs have had to depend on the support of groups like the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), New Delhi, which have the capacity to provide alternative views which could counter government claims. How much of forestland would have to go under to make way for the big dams? Arunachal is a fragile eco-system located as it is along the lower reaches of the Himalayas. It is one of those regions which determine the rainfall patterns of the entire North Eastern Indian alpines right down to the Arakan mountains of Southeast Asia.

The effect

The decisions taken by the Dorjee Khandu government will affect generations of indigenous peoples/tribals not just in Arunachal Pradesh but the entire region. Eco-systems have no boundaries. They extend from one region into another and one state to the next without any clear-cut demarcation. A heavy cloudburst in a mountainous state like Arunachal could result in major catastrophic floods in downstream areas of Assam. This is a regular phenomenon as rivers breach their banks and change their courses leaving a trail of devastation. Hence it is not a happy situation when individual states sign power production agreements without any concern about the cataclysmic effects on neighbouring states.

Whose benefit

We have always imagined that the role of the North Eastern Council is to create a convergence between state governments so that decisions taken by one can benefit others or at least cause no harm. But such is not the case today. Large tracts of forests in Arunachal Pradesh, including those areas which are a catchment for the Ranganadi and Dikrong projects of Neepco, have been rapidly deforested. It is not that the forests have been cleared only for jhum cultivation because there is no evidence of farming activities. But tract after tract of forestland is seen being burnt. The remains are black bald patches, which suggest very rapid devastation of the environment. It would be a good idea for chief minister Khandu to take the Doimukh trail to Yajuli and see for himself this trail of devastation before making further claims for a “green bonus fund”.

But Arunachal Pradesh is not the only state whose forests are fast depleting. Meghalaya, with its smoke-stacked industries, is using charcoal in unimaginable proportions. This has resulted in rapid depletion of forests, particularly in West Khasi Hills. In the Jaintia Hills, the problem is a more severe one. Irresponsible mining has led to the death of the Lukha river which once was a pristine water body, providing clean drinking water to people living around it. More and more forests are cleared for coal and limestone mining without even a plan for reclaiming and regenerating abandoned mines. These are alarming signs. But politicians of all the seven states seem totally unconcerned about the environment and the climate change impacts which are manifested in delayed monsoons, unseasonal rains and rising temperatures and which have created havoc for the farmers. Politicians can no longer get away with their wealth creation programmes at the cost of the environment. It is time to cry “halt” now or suffer the consequences.

(The writer can be contacted at patricia17@rediffmail.com)